Advanced Statistical Methods for Astrophysical Probes of Cosmology

Nonfiction, Science & Nature, Science, Physics, Cosmology, Astronomy
Cover of the book Advanced Statistical Methods for Astrophysical Probes of Cosmology by Marisa Cristina March, Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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Author: Marisa Cristina March ISBN: 9783642350603
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg Publication: January 13, 2013
Imprint: Springer Language: English
Author: Marisa Cristina March
ISBN: 9783642350603
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publication: January 13, 2013
Imprint: Springer
Language: English

This thesis explores advanced Bayesian statistical methods for extracting key information for cosmological model selection, parameter inference and forecasting from astrophysical observations. Bayesian model selection provides a measure of how good models in a set are relative to each other - but what if the best model is missing and not included in the set? Bayesian Doubt is an approach which addresses this problem and seeks to deliver an absolute rather than a relative measure of how good a model is. Supernovae type Ia were the first astrophysical observations to indicate the late time acceleration of the Universe - this work presents a detailed Bayesian Hierarchical Model to infer the cosmological parameters (in particular dark energy) from observations of these supernovae type Ia.

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This thesis explores advanced Bayesian statistical methods for extracting key information for cosmological model selection, parameter inference and forecasting from astrophysical observations. Bayesian model selection provides a measure of how good models in a set are relative to each other - but what if the best model is missing and not included in the set? Bayesian Doubt is an approach which addresses this problem and seeks to deliver an absolute rather than a relative measure of how good a model is. Supernovae type Ia were the first astrophysical observations to indicate the late time acceleration of the Universe - this work presents a detailed Bayesian Hierarchical Model to infer the cosmological parameters (in particular dark energy) from observations of these supernovae type Ia.

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