Agent-Based Modeling of Social Conflict

From Mechanisms to Complex Behavior

Nonfiction, Computers, Database Management, Data Processing, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, Social Science
Cover of the book Agent-Based Modeling of Social Conflict by Carlos M. Lemos, Springer International Publishing
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Carlos M. Lemos ISBN: 9783319670508
Publisher: Springer International Publishing Publication: October 24, 2017
Imprint: Springer Language: English
Author: Carlos M. Lemos
ISBN: 9783319670508
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Publication: October 24, 2017
Imprint: Springer
Language: English

This Brief revisits and extends Epstein’s classical agent-based model of civil violence by considering important mechanisms suggested by social conflict theories. Among them are: relative deprivation as generator of hardship, generalized vanishing of the risk perception (‘massive fear loss’) when the uprisings surpass a certain threshold, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and network influence effects represented by the mechanism of dispositional contagion. The model is explored in a set of computer experiments designed to provide insight on how mechanisms lead to increased complexity of the solutions. The results of the simulations are compared with statistical analyses of estimated size, duration and recurrence of large demonstrations and riots for eight African countries affected by the “Arab Spring,” based on the Social Conflict Analysis Database.

It is shown that the extensions to Epstein’s model proposed herein lead to increased “generative capacity” of the agent-based model (i.e. a richer set of meaningful qualitative behaviors) as well the identification of key mechanisms and associated parameters with tipping points. The use of quantitative information (international indicators and statistical analyses of conflict events) allows the assessment of the plausibility of input parameter values and simulated results, and thus a better understanding of the model’s strengths and limitations.

The contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complex

behavior include a new form of the estimated arrest probability, a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and the effect of network influences (due to small groups and “activists”). In addition, the analysis of the Social Conflict Analysis Database provided a quantitative description of the impact of the “Arab Spring” in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events in this recent and important large-scale conflict process. This book will appeal to students and researchers working in these computational social science subfields.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This Brief revisits and extends Epstein’s classical agent-based model of civil violence by considering important mechanisms suggested by social conflict theories. Among them are: relative deprivation as generator of hardship, generalized vanishing of the risk perception (‘massive fear loss’) when the uprisings surpass a certain threshold, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and network influence effects represented by the mechanism of dispositional contagion. The model is explored in a set of computer experiments designed to provide insight on how mechanisms lead to increased complexity of the solutions. The results of the simulations are compared with statistical analyses of estimated size, duration and recurrence of large demonstrations and riots for eight African countries affected by the “Arab Spring,” based on the Social Conflict Analysis Database.

It is shown that the extensions to Epstein’s model proposed herein lead to increased “generative capacity” of the agent-based model (i.e. a richer set of meaningful qualitative behaviors) as well the identification of key mechanisms and associated parameters with tipping points. The use of quantitative information (international indicators and statistical analyses of conflict events) allows the assessment of the plausibility of input parameter values and simulated results, and thus a better understanding of the model’s strengths and limitations.

The contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complex

behavior include a new form of the estimated arrest probability, a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and the effect of network influences (due to small groups and “activists”). In addition, the analysis of the Social Conflict Analysis Database provided a quantitative description of the impact of the “Arab Spring” in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events in this recent and important large-scale conflict process. This book will appeal to students and researchers working in these computational social science subfields.

More books from Springer International Publishing

Cover of the book Stochastic Processes by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Field Archaeology from Around the World by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Social, Political and Cultural Dimensions of Health by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Revisiting the Global Imaginary by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Renewable Energy by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Transport Phenomena in Multiphase Flows by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book I William Zartman: A Pioneer in Conflict Management and Area Studies by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Optimization of Type-2 Fuzzy Controllers Using the Bee Colony Algorithm by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Information and Communication Technologies for Development by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Accounting for Sustainability: Asia Pacific Perspectives by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Non-Self-Adjoint Differential Operators, Spectral Asymptotics and Random Perturbations by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book The Application of Fuzzy Logic for Managerial Decision Making Processes by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Handbook of Neuroendovascular Techniques by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book CT Virtual Hysterosalpingography by Carlos M. Lemos
Cover of the book Small Flying Drones by Carlos M. Lemos
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy