Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers

Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, Government
Cover of the book Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9781476281148
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: March 12, 2012
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9781476281148
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: March 12, 2012
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

From the Foreword: It is a rare season when the intelligence story in the news concerns intelligence analysis, not secret operations abroad. The United States is having such a season as it debates whether intelligence failed in the run-up to both September 11 and the second Iraq war, and so Rob Johnston's wonderful book is perfectly timed to provide the back-story to those headlines. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence is to be commended for having the good sense to find Johnston and the courage to support his work, even though his conclusions are not what many in the world of intelligence analysis would like to hear.

He reaches those conclusions through the careful procedures of an anthropologist—conducting literally hundreds of interviews and observing and participating in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis—and so they cannot easily be dismissed as mere opinion, still less as the bitter mutterings of those who have lost out in the bureaucratic wars. His findings constitute not just a strong indictment of the way American intelligence performs analysis, but also, and happily, a guide for how to do better.

Johnston finds no baseline standard analytic method. Instead, the most common practice is to conduct limited brainstorming on the basis of previous analysis, thus producing a bias toward confirming earlier views. The validating of data is questionable—for instance, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of spy reports doesn't permit testing of their validity—reinforcing the tendency to look for data that confirms, not refutes, prevailing hypotheses. The process is risk averse, with considerable managerial conservatism. There is much more emphasis on avoiding error than on imagining surprises. The analytic process is driven by current intelligence, especially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's Daily Brief (PDB), which might be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston doesn't put it quite that way, but the Intelligence Community does more reporting than in-depth analysis.

None of the analytic agencies knows much about the analytic techniques of the others. In all, there tends to be much more emphasis on writing and communication skills than on analytic methods. Training is driven more by the druthers of individual analysts than by any strategic view of the agencies and what they need. Most training is on-the-job.

Johnston identifies the needs for analysis of at least three different types of consumers—cops, spies, and soldiers. The needs of those consumers produce at least three distinct types of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.

The research suggests the need for serious study of analytic methods across all three, guided by professional methodologists. Analysts should have many more opportunities to do fieldwork abroad. They should also move much more often across the agency "stovepipes" they now inhabit. These movements would give them a richer sense for how other agencies do analysis.

CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * CHAPTER TWO - Findings * CHAPTER THREE - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * CHAPTER FOUR - Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling and Simulation * CHAPTER FIVE - Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts * CHAPTER SIX - The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis * CHAPTER SEVEN - Instructional Technology: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence Community * CHAPTER EIGHT - Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * CHAPTER NINE - Recommendations: The First Step: Recognizing A Fundamental Problem * CHAPTER TEN - Survey Methodology * CHAPTER ELEVEN - Q-Sort Methodology * CHAPTER TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" Problem and Calculation of Effect Size

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

From the Foreword: It is a rare season when the intelligence story in the news concerns intelligence analysis, not secret operations abroad. The United States is having such a season as it debates whether intelligence failed in the run-up to both September 11 and the second Iraq war, and so Rob Johnston's wonderful book is perfectly timed to provide the back-story to those headlines. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence is to be commended for having the good sense to find Johnston and the courage to support his work, even though his conclusions are not what many in the world of intelligence analysis would like to hear.

He reaches those conclusions through the careful procedures of an anthropologist—conducting literally hundreds of interviews and observing and participating in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis—and so they cannot easily be dismissed as mere opinion, still less as the bitter mutterings of those who have lost out in the bureaucratic wars. His findings constitute not just a strong indictment of the way American intelligence performs analysis, but also, and happily, a guide for how to do better.

Johnston finds no baseline standard analytic method. Instead, the most common practice is to conduct limited brainstorming on the basis of previous analysis, thus producing a bias toward confirming earlier views. The validating of data is questionable—for instance, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of spy reports doesn't permit testing of their validity—reinforcing the tendency to look for data that confirms, not refutes, prevailing hypotheses. The process is risk averse, with considerable managerial conservatism. There is much more emphasis on avoiding error than on imagining surprises. The analytic process is driven by current intelligence, especially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's Daily Brief (PDB), which might be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston doesn't put it quite that way, but the Intelligence Community does more reporting than in-depth analysis.

None of the analytic agencies knows much about the analytic techniques of the others. In all, there tends to be much more emphasis on writing and communication skills than on analytic methods. Training is driven more by the druthers of individual analysts than by any strategic view of the agencies and what they need. Most training is on-the-job.

Johnston identifies the needs for analysis of at least three different types of consumers—cops, spies, and soldiers. The needs of those consumers produce at least three distinct types of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.

The research suggests the need for serious study of analytic methods across all three, guided by professional methodologists. Analysts should have many more opportunities to do fieldwork abroad. They should also move much more often across the agency "stovepipes" they now inhabit. These movements would give them a richer sense for how other agencies do analysis.

CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * CHAPTER TWO - Findings * CHAPTER THREE - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * CHAPTER FOUR - Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling and Simulation * CHAPTER FIVE - Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts * CHAPTER SIX - The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis * CHAPTER SEVEN - Instructional Technology: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence Community * CHAPTER EIGHT - Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * CHAPTER NINE - Recommendations: The First Step: Recognizing A Fundamental Problem * CHAPTER TEN - Survey Methodology * CHAPTER ELEVEN - Q-Sort Methodology * CHAPTER TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" Problem and Calculation of Effect Size

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book GITMO, Terrorists, and Enhanced Interrogation: The Legality, Utility and Morality of Coercion, Regaining the Moral High Ground, Reparations for Guantanamo Detainees, Comparison to Japanese Internment by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Women on the Frontlines of Peace and Security with Foreword by Hillary Rodham Clinton and Leon Panetta: Women in the Military, Defense, Foreign Policy, NATO, Crisis, Special Operations Forces by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 2017 Encyclopedia of World Terrorism: State Department Country Reports on Terrorism 2016 With Data on State Sponsors, CBRN Threats, Safe Havens, Terrorist Organizations, and Counterterrorism by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century U.S. Military Manuals: Military Intelligence, Army Lineage Series, Narrative Content - World War I and II, Korea War, Vietnam War, and Beyond by Progressive Management
Cover of the book At Periscope Depth: Exploring Submarine Proliferation in Southeast Asia - Case Studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam - Undersea Diesel Electric Subs, Philippines and Thailand by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Veterans Health: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) VA Independent Study Course and Additional Material - Cognitive Problems, Living with TBI, Family Impact, Treatment by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Military Housing and Facilities for American Servicewomen: The Built Environment of Cold War Era Servicewomen - Oveta Culp Hobby, Director of the Women's Army Auxiliary Corps by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Biological Incident Operations: A Guide for Law Enforcement - Terrorism Response, Protection, Intelligence, Investigation, Incidents, Personal Protection by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 20th Century Political History: The Watergate Files - Historic Document Reproductions, Break-in, Impeachment and Resignation of President Richard Nixon, Biographical Sketches, Timeline, FBI Chronology by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Nuclear Power Plant Reactor Training Manual: Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Design at Japan TEPCO Fukushima Plant and U.S. Plants - Comprehensive Technical Data on Systems, Components, and Operations by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Reading the Tea Leaves: Proto-Insurgency in Honduras - How to Recognize An Insurgency While In Early Stages, Interagency Friction, Intelligence Assessments, Nature of the Conflict, General John Galvin by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Nuclear Fusion Energy Encyclopedia: ITER Project, Burning Plasma, American and International Fusion Research Facilities, Spinoffs, FESAC Reports, Toroidal Magnetic Fusion by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Southeast Asia: ISIS's Next Front - Islamic State Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) Establishing Networks in Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, Ways to Detect and Improve Key Vulnerabilities by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Adult Cancer Sourcebook: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) - Clinical Data for Patients, Families, and Physicians by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Apollo and America's Moon Landing Program: Project Apollo: A Retrospective Analysis - A Narrative Account Starting with the Kennedy Decision, Monograph in Aerospace History by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy