Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
by
Dan Gardner
Language: English
Release Date: October 12, 2010
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would...