Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts

Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement

Business & Finance, Economics, Econometrics, Nonfiction, Health & Well Being, Psychology
Cover of the book Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts by Philip Hans Franses, Cambridge University Press
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Author: Philip Hans Franses ISBN: 9781316120743
Publisher: Cambridge University Press Publication: October 6, 2014
Imprint: Cambridge University Press Language: English
Author: Philip Hans Franses
ISBN: 9781316120743
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication: October 6, 2014
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Language: English

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

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