Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

Nonfiction, Health & Well Being, Psychology, Social Psychology, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science
Cover of the book Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Philip E. Tetlock ISBN: 9781400888818
Publisher: Princeton University Press Publication: August 29, 2017
Imprint: Princeton University Press Language: English
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN: 9781400888818
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication: August 29, 2017
Imprint: Princeton University Press
Language: English

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

More books from Princeton University Press

Cover of the book The Theory of Ecological Communities (MPB-57) by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Leisurely Islam by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Trusting Doctors by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Friction by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Edward Elgar and His World by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Self-Deception Unmasked by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book On the Move by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Democracies at War by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book The New Financial Order by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book The Quotable Feynman by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book France's New Deal by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Einstein on Politics by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book The Reasons of Love by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers by Philip E. Tetlock
Cover of the book A History of the ‘Alawis by Philip E. Tetlock
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy