Modelling of Consequences of Transport Corridors Development

Modelling of consequences of transport corridors development The idea of transport corridors development, grouping an infrastructure of different modes of transport is one of the most essential directions of European transportation policy today. The monograph presents problems connected with corridor studies, with special consideration of modelling and forecasting consequences of transport corridors infrastructure development. It is a very complex stage of analysis since it requires taking into account the following aspects: a spatial scope of development effects; a long period of realization and exploitation of planned infrastructure; many modes of transport; a multiplicity of consequences and an uncertainty factor. Models commonly used at this stage do not fulfil requirements of comprehensive and dynamic analysis on a corridor scale. The aim of the monograph is to present the methodics of creation models, based on the idea of modular modelling, which allows one to construct dynamic and holistic models enabling the following: (1) comprehensive forecasting of investment in transport infrastructure results appearing in transport system and in related systems, i.e. social, economic and ecological one within the investigated area; (2) integrating capabilities of different scientific disciplines (transport economics, transport policy, econometrics, computer science, computer simulation etc), being a qualitatively new tool of analysis; (3) catching of mutual connections between consequences in a dynamic way. Szczecin 2005 Contents INTRODUCTION 5 1. THE CONCEPT OF TRANSPORT CORRIDOR 5 2. THE ROLE OF MODELS IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PLANS ANALYSIS 6 3. REVIEW OF EXISTING MODELS FOR TRANSPORT IMPACTS APPRAISAL 8 HOLISTIC SIMULATION MODELLING CONCEPT 14 1. THE ESSENCE OF HOLISTIC MODELLING 14 2. COMPUTER SIMULATION AS A METHOD OF SOLVING MODELS 18 3. METHODOLOGICAL SCHEME FOR COMPUTER SIMULATION IN ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT CORRIDORS DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS 20 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AS THE HOLISTIC MODELLING PLATFORM 24 1. ESSENCE OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS 24 2. SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING PROCEDURE 26 3. WHY SYSTEM DYNAMICS IS GOOD PLATFORM FOR HOLISTIC MODELLING 30 THE ESSENCE OF MODULAR SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS ANALYSIS 32 1. THE DEFINITION OF MODULE 32 2. THE PROCEDURE OF MODULAR MODELLING 35 3. GENERAL STRUCTURE OF MODEL 36 EXAMPLIFICATION OF A MODEL FOR THE 6TH PAN-EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CORRIDOR 43 1. GOAL AND SCOPE OF THE MODEL 43 2. GRAPHICAL AND MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL 46 3. RESULTS OF SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS 47 CONCLUSIONS 50 REFERENCES 52 APPENDIX 56