Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Business & Finance, Economics, Planning & Forecasting, Nonfiction, Health & Well Being, Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Social & Cultural Studies, Social Science
Cover of the book Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Crown/Archetype
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ISBN: 9780804136709
Publisher: Crown/Archetype Publication: September 29, 2015
Imprint: Crown Language: English
Author: Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
ISBN: 9780804136709
Publisher: Crown/Archetype
Publication: September 29, 2015
Imprint: Crown
Language: English

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

More books from Social Science

Cover of the book The Women's Brain Book by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book The Bernal Story by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Chew on This! by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Environmental Justice in Postwar America by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book A Patriot's History of the United States by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Christian, Saracen and Genre in Medieval French Literature by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Creativity and Cultural Production by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Corruption in Cuba by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book 2011 Complete Guide to Bahrain: Bahraini Government, Military, Human and Religious Rights, History, Trade, Exports, Economy - Authoritative Coverage by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Un anno d’amore by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book The Escape Artists by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Curriculum Reform in Ontario by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Laid Low by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Gebrauchsanweisung für Frankfurt am Main by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Cover of the book Governing Failure by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy