The Art of Conjecture

Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, Politics, History & Theory, Religion & Spirituality, Philosophy
Cover of the book The Art of Conjecture by Bertrand de Jouvenel, Taylor and Francis
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Bertrand de Jouvenel ISBN: 9781351305662
Publisher: Taylor and Francis Publication: September 29, 2017
Imprint: Routledge Language: English
Author: Bertrand de Jouvenel
ISBN: 9781351305662
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Publication: September 29, 2017
Imprint: Routledge
Language: English

Commissions of experts regularly meet to reply to questions such as: What will be the population of the country, or even of our planet, in ten, fifteen or twenty-five years? In what proportion will production have increased, what modifications will its composition and utilizations have undergone? The attraction of efforts to forecast the future continues. That is a fact. How does it proceed? That is a problem, one on which de Jouvenel focuses on in this book.

The Art of Conjecture clearly explains what the "study of the future" can mean. De Jouvenel emphasizes the logical and political problems of forecasting and discusses methods in economics, sociology, and political science by which the future can be studied. More importantly, he discusses the fallacies to which the "study of the future" is peculiarly likely to give rise. The author argues that it is natural and necessary for the population to have visions of the future. Without this, he states, we would only be able to set one opinion of the future against another. If the origins and meanings of these predictions remained obscure, only the event could decide among the opinions.

If any man can be said to have created the serious "study of the future" in our time, it is Bertrand de Jouvenel. Futuribles, a periodical he created,continues to represent a major turning point in contemporary social science. Jouvenel aimed to show how "the art of conjecture" could inform prudential judgment and allow citizens and statesmen to detect troubles before they arise.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

Commissions of experts regularly meet to reply to questions such as: What will be the population of the country, or even of our planet, in ten, fifteen or twenty-five years? In what proportion will production have increased, what modifications will its composition and utilizations have undergone? The attraction of efforts to forecast the future continues. That is a fact. How does it proceed? That is a problem, one on which de Jouvenel focuses on in this book.

The Art of Conjecture clearly explains what the "study of the future" can mean. De Jouvenel emphasizes the logical and political problems of forecasting and discusses methods in economics, sociology, and political science by which the future can be studied. More importantly, he discusses the fallacies to which the "study of the future" is peculiarly likely to give rise. The author argues that it is natural and necessary for the population to have visions of the future. Without this, he states, we would only be able to set one opinion of the future against another. If the origins and meanings of these predictions remained obscure, only the event could decide among the opinions.

If any man can be said to have created the serious "study of the future" in our time, it is Bertrand de Jouvenel. Futuribles, a periodical he created,continues to represent a major turning point in contemporary social science. Jouvenel aimed to show how "the art of conjecture" could inform prudential judgment and allow citizens and statesmen to detect troubles before they arise.

More books from Taylor and Francis

Cover of the book Global Perspectives on Football in Africa by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Essential Life Coaching Skills by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Development and Welfare Policy in South Asia by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Nation, Ethnicity and Race on Russian Television by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Marketing in the 21st Century: Concepts, Challenges and Imperatives by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book The Origins of Ethical Failures by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Judgment and Decision Making by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Allan Ramsay and the Search for Horace's Villa by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Youth Culture, Popular Music and the End of 'Consensus' by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Qualitative Educational Research in Developing Countries by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Perceptual and Emotional Embodiment by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Homeless by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book One Hundred Years of Kibbutz Life by Bertrand de Jouvenel
Cover of the book Egypt's Making by Bertrand de Jouvenel
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy