The Logic of Intelligence Analysis

Why Hypothesis Testing Matters

Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, International, International Security, International Relations
Cover of the book The Logic of Intelligence Analysis by Karl Spielmann, Taylor and Francis
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Karl Spielmann ISBN: 9780429891885
Publisher: Taylor and Francis Publication: June 12, 2018
Imprint: Routledge Language: English
Author: Karl Spielmann
ISBN: 9780429891885
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Publication: June 12, 2018
Imprint: Routledge
Language: English

This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis.

By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue.

This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis.

By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue.

This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.

More books from Taylor and Francis

Cover of the book Women in Europe since 1750 by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Biography and Education by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Adolescent Problems by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Social Work and Social Policy by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Legal Perspectives in Bioethics by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Wonder, Value and God by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Management Training and Development in China by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book The Literacy Coaching Handbook by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Economic Statecraft during the Cold War by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Encrypted Messages in Alban Berg's Music by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Knowledge Machines by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Voice of the Oppressed in the Language of the Oppressor by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Communication Yearbook 15 by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book Feature and Narrative Storytelling for Multimedia Journalists by Karl Spielmann
Cover of the book The Dual Vision by Karl Spielmann
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy