Understanding Violence Through Social Media: Assessing Feasibility of Twitter Utilization in Conflict Prediction Using Messages Within Iraq, Extreme Negative Terminology Predicts Subsequent Violence

Nonfiction, History, Military, Computers
Cover of the book Understanding Violence Through Social Media: Assessing Feasibility of Twitter Utilization in Conflict Prediction Using Messages Within Iraq, Extreme Negative Terminology Predicts Subsequent Violence by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9780463189375
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: July 6, 2018
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9780463189375
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: July 6, 2018
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This important December 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

While social media analysis has been widely utilized to predict various market and political trends, its utilization to improve geospatial conflict prediction in contested environments remains understudied. To determine the feasibility of social media utilization in conflict prediction, we compared historical conflict data and social media metadata, utilizing over 829,537 geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network within Iraq from August 2013 to July 2014. From our research, we conclude that social media metadata has a positive impact on conflict prediction when compared with historical conflict data. Additionally, we find that utilizing the most extreme negative terminology from a locally derived social media lexicon provided the most significant predictive accuracy for determining areas that would experience subsequent violence. We suggest future research projects center on improving the conflict prediction capability of social media data and include social media analysis in operational assessments.

I. INTRODUCTION * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS AND MILITARY DOCTRINE * B. CONFLICT PREDICTION * C. METHODOLOGY SYNTHESIS * III. BACKGROUND—IRAQ * IV. RESEARCH METHODS * A. HYPOTHESIS * B. DATA AND METHODS * 1. Social Media * 2. Sentiment Dictionary * 3. Analysis Framework * 4. Dependent Variable * 5. Independent Variable * 6. Control Variables * C. REGRESSION ANALYSIS * V. RESULTS * A. FINDING ONE—TWITTER MATTERS * B. FINDING TWO—NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IMPROVES PREDICTIONS * C. FINDING THREE—EXTREME SENTIMENT MATTERS MORE * VI. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH * A. SENTIMENT FOLLOWING VIOLENT EVENTS * B. DOES THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT MATTER? * C. ARABIC LEXICONS AND TWITTER * VII. CONCLUSION

Social media continues to evolve as a means of sentiment sharing, communication, and social interaction. The interconnectedness of population groups continues to grow with the advancement of mobile device technology and the accessibility of Internet communication infrastructures. This medium provides a constant flow of social tendencies throughout 37 percent of the world's population, which are not limited to benign subjects but also include radical leanings and other forms of social unrest. Analyzing social media trends in key locations of strategic concern could provide an additional tool for conflict prediction.3 Additionally, examining the relationship between social media sentiments and violent events could allow decision makers to be proactive and less reactionary.

Why is this important? Human domain dynamics constantly shift, so the requirement to seek new and inventive ways to gather intelligence on those shifts is imperative. Moreover, the environments where human intelligence is needed most are often the hardest to access physically. The lack of real-time human intelligence in locations with limited access is therefore a serious problem. However, advances in communication technology have also produced new means for maintaining situational awareness. This research seeks to provide insight into human sentiment through social media analysis as a viable solution to this problem. Once we understand the relationship between sentiment and violence in a particular conflict, we can operationalize solutions to curb the occurrence of violence through conflict resolution.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This important December 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

While social media analysis has been widely utilized to predict various market and political trends, its utilization to improve geospatial conflict prediction in contested environments remains understudied. To determine the feasibility of social media utilization in conflict prediction, we compared historical conflict data and social media metadata, utilizing over 829,537 geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network within Iraq from August 2013 to July 2014. From our research, we conclude that social media metadata has a positive impact on conflict prediction when compared with historical conflict data. Additionally, we find that utilizing the most extreme negative terminology from a locally derived social media lexicon provided the most significant predictive accuracy for determining areas that would experience subsequent violence. We suggest future research projects center on improving the conflict prediction capability of social media data and include social media analysis in operational assessments.

I. INTRODUCTION * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS AND MILITARY DOCTRINE * B. CONFLICT PREDICTION * C. METHODOLOGY SYNTHESIS * III. BACKGROUND—IRAQ * IV. RESEARCH METHODS * A. HYPOTHESIS * B. DATA AND METHODS * 1. Social Media * 2. Sentiment Dictionary * 3. Analysis Framework * 4. Dependent Variable * 5. Independent Variable * 6. Control Variables * C. REGRESSION ANALYSIS * V. RESULTS * A. FINDING ONE—TWITTER MATTERS * B. FINDING TWO—NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IMPROVES PREDICTIONS * C. FINDING THREE—EXTREME SENTIMENT MATTERS MORE * VI. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH * A. SENTIMENT FOLLOWING VIOLENT EVENTS * B. DOES THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT MATTER? * C. ARABIC LEXICONS AND TWITTER * VII. CONCLUSION

Social media continues to evolve as a means of sentiment sharing, communication, and social interaction. The interconnectedness of population groups continues to grow with the advancement of mobile device technology and the accessibility of Internet communication infrastructures. This medium provides a constant flow of social tendencies throughout 37 percent of the world's population, which are not limited to benign subjects but also include radical leanings and other forms of social unrest. Analyzing social media trends in key locations of strategic concern could provide an additional tool for conflict prediction.3 Additionally, examining the relationship between social media sentiments and violent events could allow decision makers to be proactive and less reactionary.

Why is this important? Human domain dynamics constantly shift, so the requirement to seek new and inventive ways to gather intelligence on those shifts is imperative. Moreover, the environments where human intelligence is needed most are often the hardest to access physically. The lack of real-time human intelligence in locations with limited access is therefore a serious problem. However, advances in communication technology have also produced new means for maintaining situational awareness. This research seeks to provide insight into human sentiment through social media analysis as a viable solution to this problem. Once we understand the relationship between sentiment and violence in a particular conflict, we can operationalize solutions to curb the occurrence of violence through conflict resolution.

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book America's Conditional Advantage: Airpower, Counterinsurgency, and the Theory of John Warden - COIN, Airpower, French-Algerian War, Vietnam, Soviet Afghan War, Enemy as a System (EAS) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Spy Satellite Encyclopedia: The Amazing History of the Early Photoreconnaissance Satellites by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Hubble Space Telescope Systems Engineering Case Study: Technical Information and Program History of NASA's Famous HST Telescope by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Russia in Perspective: Orientation Guide and Cultural Orientation: Geography, History, Economy, Society, Security, Religion, Post-Soviet Russia, Stalin, Ivan the Terrible, Ukraine, Crimea by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Gays and Lesbians in the U.S. Military: DoD Reports on the Comprehensive Review of the Issues Associated with a Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT), Plus Military Implementation Plan by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Apollo and America's Moon Landing Program: Project Apollo: A Retrospective Analysis - A Narrative Account Starting with the Kennedy Decision, Monograph in Aerospace History by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 20th Century Political History: The Watergate Files - Historic Document Reproductions, Break-in, Impeachment and Resignation of President Richard Nixon, Biographical Sketches, Timeline, FBI Chronology by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Decade of War, Volume I: Enduring Lessons from the Past Decade of Operations - Mistakes and Failures in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, Strategic Themes and Recommendations by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Operational Reconnaissance: Identifying the Right Problems in a Complex World – Case Studies of World War II and 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War, Intelligence Objectives, Capabilities, and Planning by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Adult Cancer Sourcebook: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) - Clinical Data for Patients, Families, and Physicians by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Superstorm Encyclopedia: Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Typhoons, Cyclones - Meteorology, Forecasts, Safety and Preparedness, History, Disaster Health Problems by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska: Managing for the Future in a Rapidly Changing Arctic - Oil and Gas, Mining, Shipping and Fisheries, Global Warming and Climate Change by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident: The Tragedy of Mission 51-L in 1986 - Volume One of the Rogers Commission Report by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Fire Monitoring Handbook (FMH Fire Management Program Center, National Interagency Fire Center) Part 2 - Wildfire and Wildland Fire Environmental and Fire Observation, Vegetation Monitoring Protocols by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Saudi Arabia's Strategic Rocket Force: The Silent Service - Surface to Surface Missiles, Riyadh's Strategic Calculations, Nuclear Weapons, Missiles from China and Pakistan, Counterproliferation by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy