Why the Weak Win Wars: A Study of the Factors That Drive Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict - Analysis of U.S. Involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq War, Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan, Vietnam War

Nonfiction, History, Military, Vietnam War, Asian
Cover of the book Why the Weak Win Wars: A Study of the Factors That Drive Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict - Analysis of U.S. Involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq War, Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan, Vietnam War by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9781311002037
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: May 31, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9781311002037
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: May 31, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This report builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. This project uses a game theoretic model to illustrate how a seemingly non-optimal strategy may be rational for initial phases of the conflict. However, this rationale does not apply beyond initial stages of conflict. To explain non-optimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, this project analyzes strategy drivers—factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors found to influence strategy implementation. Other than probability of victory, this study finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. With this conceptual basis, the project analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001. It also takes a cursory look at U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition with an excessive disposition towards direct attack. As such, this thesis recommends taking action to provide the U.S. military with a more neutral institutional predisposition.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. AVOIDANCE IS NOT AN OPTION * B. NEED FOR A THEORY * C. THESIS * CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF WAR OUTCOME EXPLANATIONS * CHAPTER III - A CLOSER LOOK AT ARREGUIN-TOFT * A. STRONG AND WEAK * B. DIRECT ATTACK * C. INDIRECT ATTACK * D. DIRECT DEFENSE * E. INDIRECT DEFENSE * F. SHORTCOMINGS * CHAPTER IV - GAME THEORETIC MODEL * A. ORDINAL VALUES FOR STRONG ACTORS * B. ORDINAL VALUES FOR WEAK ACTORS * C. THE RESULTING GAME * D. PREDICTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GAME * CHAPTER V - STRATEGY DRIVERS * A. DESCRIPTION OF FACTORS THAT DRIVE STRATEGY * B. RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF STRATEGY FACTORS * CHAPTER VI - AFGHANISTAN CASE STUDY * A. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #1 * B. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #2 * C. ATTEMPTED STRATEGIC INTERACTION #3 * CHAPTER VII - OTHER CONFLICTS AT A GLANCE * A. OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM * B. USSR IN AFGHANISTAN * C. U.S. INTERACTIONS IN VIETNAM * D. INSIGHTS FROM CASE STUDIES * CHAPTER VIII - DISCUSSION * CHAPTER IX - RECOMMENDATIONS * CHAPTER X - CONCLUSION

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This report builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. This project uses a game theoretic model to illustrate how a seemingly non-optimal strategy may be rational for initial phases of the conflict. However, this rationale does not apply beyond initial stages of conflict. To explain non-optimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, this project analyzes strategy drivers—factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors found to influence strategy implementation. Other than probability of victory, this study finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. With this conceptual basis, the project analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001. It also takes a cursory look at U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition with an excessive disposition towards direct attack. As such, this thesis recommends taking action to provide the U.S. military with a more neutral institutional predisposition.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. AVOIDANCE IS NOT AN OPTION * B. NEED FOR A THEORY * C. THESIS * CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF WAR OUTCOME EXPLANATIONS * CHAPTER III - A CLOSER LOOK AT ARREGUIN-TOFT * A. STRONG AND WEAK * B. DIRECT ATTACK * C. INDIRECT ATTACK * D. DIRECT DEFENSE * E. INDIRECT DEFENSE * F. SHORTCOMINGS * CHAPTER IV - GAME THEORETIC MODEL * A. ORDINAL VALUES FOR STRONG ACTORS * B. ORDINAL VALUES FOR WEAK ACTORS * C. THE RESULTING GAME * D. PREDICTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GAME * CHAPTER V - STRATEGY DRIVERS * A. DESCRIPTION OF FACTORS THAT DRIVE STRATEGY * B. RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF STRATEGY FACTORS * CHAPTER VI - AFGHANISTAN CASE STUDY * A. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #1 * B. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #2 * C. ATTEMPTED STRATEGIC INTERACTION #3 * CHAPTER VII - OTHER CONFLICTS AT A GLANCE * A. OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM * B. USSR IN AFGHANISTAN * C. U.S. INTERACTIONS IN VIETNAM * D. INSIGHTS FROM CASE STUDIES * CHAPTER VIII - DISCUSSION * CHAPTER IX - RECOMMENDATIONS * CHAPTER X - CONCLUSION

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book Complete Guide to the 1980 Iranian Hostage Crisis and Rescue Mission, Operation Eagle Claw, Desert One, Holloway Report, Studies, Plans, CIA Role in Argo Cover Story, Formerly Secret Documents by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 2011 After the Nuclear Meltdown: Crucial Survival and Medical Data for Nuclear Power Plant and Radiation Accidents and Terrorism - Essential Emergency Information for You and Your Family by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Adult Cancer Sourcebook: Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) - Clinical Data for Patients, Families, and Physicians by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Militancy in Pakistan: A Schizophrenic Problem - Taliban, Pashtun, War on Terror, Durand Line, Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto, Zia Al-Huq, India, Ayub Khan, Zulfikar Bhutto by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Armageddon's Lost Lessons: Combined Arms Operations in Allenby's Palestine Campaign - 1918 World War I Rout of Turkish Forces at Battle of Megiddo, Foreshadowing of German Blitzkrieg in World War II by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Military and Department of Defense Response to Climate Change and Emerging Environmental Issues, Adaptation Roadmap, Security Challenge, Global Warming Military Implications by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Advanced Surface Force Fleet: A Proposal for an Alternate Surface Force Structure and its Impact in the Asian Pacific Theater - Naval Expeditionary Amphibious Warfare, Power Projection, Sea Strike by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI) Papers - A Case Study in Security Sector Reform: Learning from Security Sector Reform / Building in Afghanistan by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century FEMA Study Course: Introduction to the Incident Command System (ICS 100) for Higher Education and the Campus (IS-100.HE) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Complete Guide to Maritime Pirates, Piracy, and Security, Assaults from Somalia, 2009 Capture of the Maersk Alabama, Rescue of Captain Richard Phillips, al-Shabaab by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Is the Army Developing Strategic Leaders? Case Studies of General George Marshall, William Westmoreland, and Eric Shinseki, World-class Warriors, Army Doctrine, Laws and Officer Grade Limitation Act by Progressive Management
Cover of the book U.S. Coast Guard Chaplains Orientation Manual: Religious Services, Support, and Terms including Lay Reader Handbook - Christian, Jewish, Muslim Information by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century U.S. Military Documents: Air Force B-1 Lancer Bomber - Operations Procedures, Aircrew Evaluation Criteria, Aircrew Training Flying Operations by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Apollo and America's Moon Landing Program: Apollo 13 Accident Cortright Review Board Report with Findings and Recommendations about the In-flight Oxygen Tank Explosion - Lovell, Haise, and Swigert by Progressive Management
Cover of the book A Historical Analysis of United States Prisoner of War (POW) / Missing in Action (MIA) Repatriation and Remains Recovery - World War II, Korea, Vietnam Wars, Philip Corso, Eisenhower, Le Duc Tho by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy