Global Trends Paradox of Progress: 2017 Report of the National Intelligence Council, Promise or Peril of the Future, War, Population, Energy, Climate, Terrorism, Populist Anti-Establishment Politics

Nonfiction, History, Military, United States, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, International
Cover of the book Global Trends Paradox of Progress: 2017 Report of the National Intelligence Council, Promise or Peril of the Future, War, Population, Energy, Climate, Terrorism, Populist Anti-Establishment Politics by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9781370679652
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: April 17, 2017
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9781370679652
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: April 17, 2017
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This edition of Global Trends - issued in early 2017 - revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.

Contents: 1. The Future Summarized * 2. The Map of the Future * 3. Trends Transforming the Global Landscape * 4. Near Future: Tensions Are Rising * 5. Three Scenarios for the Distant Future: Islands, Orbits, Communities * 6. What the Scenarios Teach Us: Fostering Opportunities Through Resilience * 7. Annex: The Next Five Years by Region * 8. Annex: Key Global Trends

Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking "outside the box," to use the cliche, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades.
This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, "Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress," and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive "answer."

Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead-even if they don't necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address.

Peering into the future can be scary and surely is humbling. Events unfold in complex ways for which our brains are not naturally wired. Economic, political, social, technological, and cultural forces collide in dizzying ways, so we can be led to confuse recent, dramatic events with the more important ones. It is tempting, and usually fair, to assume people act "rationally," but leaders, groups, mobs, and masses can behave very differently—and unexpectedly—under similar circumstances. For instance, we had known for decades how brittle most regimes in the Middle East were, yet some erupted in the Arab Spring in 2011 and others did not. Experience teaches us how much history unfolds through cycles and shifts, and still human nature commonly expects tomorrow to be pretty much like today—which is usually the safest bet on the future until it is not. I always remind myself that between Mr. Reagan's "evil empire" speech and the demise of that empire, the Soviet Union, was only a scant decade, a relatively short time even in a human life.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This edition of Global Trends - issued in early 2017 - revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.

Contents: 1. The Future Summarized * 2. The Map of the Future * 3. Trends Transforming the Global Landscape * 4. Near Future: Tensions Are Rising * 5. Three Scenarios for the Distant Future: Islands, Orbits, Communities * 6. What the Scenarios Teach Us: Fostering Opportunities Through Resilience * 7. Annex: The Next Five Years by Region * 8. Annex: Key Global Trends

Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking "outside the box," to use the cliche, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades.
This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, "Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress," and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive "answer."

Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead-even if they don't necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address.

Peering into the future can be scary and surely is humbling. Events unfold in complex ways for which our brains are not naturally wired. Economic, political, social, technological, and cultural forces collide in dizzying ways, so we can be led to confuse recent, dramatic events with the more important ones. It is tempting, and usually fair, to assume people act "rationally," but leaders, groups, mobs, and masses can behave very differently—and unexpectedly—under similar circumstances. For instance, we had known for decades how brittle most regimes in the Middle East were, yet some erupted in the Arab Spring in 2011 and others did not. Experience teaches us how much history unfolds through cycles and shifts, and still human nature commonly expects tomorrow to be pretty much like today—which is usually the safest bet on the future until it is not. I always remind myself that between Mr. Reagan's "evil empire" speech and the demise of that empire, the Soviet Union, was only a scant decade, a relatively short time even in a human life.

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book Saudi Arabia: Modernity, Stability, and the Twenty-First Century Monarchy - Wahhabism, Saudi Political and Cultural History, Ibn Saud, Patronage State, Oil Economy, King Abdullah, Contemporary Reality by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Essential Guide to Harriet Tubman: Underground Railroad, Civil War Intelligence and Spying, Leadership, Life of Slavery, Servant Leader, Spirituality, Women in the Civil War, Minority Women Officers by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Stability Economics: The Economic Foundations of Security in Post-conflict Environments - Iraq and Afghanistan, Shari'a Compliant Finance, Odierno, Petraeus, Shining Path Guerrillas by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Kosovo and Operation Allied Force After-Action Report: Report To Congress, Ending Serbian Atrocities, Slobodan Milosevic, Complete Review of the Campaign by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Defending U.S. National Interests in the Persian Gulf: Going Light - Seabasing, Counterterrorism, Special Operations Forces, Djibouti, Horn of Africa, Maritime Security, Forward Staging in Africa by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The United States Strategic Bombing Surveys: European War and Pacific War in World War II, Conventional Bombing and the Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Revolutionary War (War of American Independence): Supplying Washington's Army - Quartermaster, Transportation, Forage Department, Clothing the Troops, Ordnance in the American Revolution by Progressive Management
Cover of the book U.S. Army Commander's Battle Staff Handbook with Garrison Duties: Fire Support Officer, Engineer, Air Defense Artillery, Signal, Chemical, Chaplain - Determining Staff Functional Capability by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Russia Encyclopedia: Comprehensive Coverage - History from Ivan the Terrible to Putin, Official Reports and Guides, Economy, Society, Culture and People, Military, Russian Nationalism by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Understanding Cancer Toolkit: Cancer Clusters, Carcinogenesis, Cancer and the Environment, Studies of Suspected Clusters, Interaction of Environmental Factors and Genes by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century FEMA Study Course: Emergency Support Function #9 Search and Rescue (IS-809) - Search and Rescue (SAR), Urban (US+R), Coast Guard, Structural Collapse by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Introduction to Defense Acquisition Management (Tenth Edition) - How DoD Does Business, Program Management, Policy, Resource Allocation Process, Weapon Systems by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Educating Captains for War: Deliberately Designing Professional Military Education - School of Advanced Leadership and Tactics (SALT), Development of Captains' Career Course (CCC) Curricula by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Modern Shale Gas Development in the United States: A Primer - Geology, Regulations, Environmental Considerations, Hydraulic Fracturing, Protecting Groundwater, Pollution Threats, Impact to Land by Progressive Management
Cover of the book China's Economic Development Plan in Xinjiang and How it Affects Ethnic Instability: Economic Development in the Xuar, Uyghurs, Silk Road, Central Asia Resources, Han Migrants, Destabilizing Factors by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy