The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods. Prospect or Pitfall?

A Literature Review

Nonfiction, Reference & Language, Language Arts, Communication
Cover of the book The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods. Prospect or Pitfall? by Marla van Nieuwland, GRIN Verlag
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Marla van Nieuwland ISBN: 9783668093881
Publisher: GRIN Verlag Publication: November 24, 2015
Imprint: GRIN Verlag Language: English
Author: Marla van Nieuwland
ISBN: 9783668093881
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Publication: November 24, 2015
Imprint: GRIN Verlag
Language: English

Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Communications - Media and Politics, Politic Communications, grade: 1,0, University of Constance, language: English, abstract: In 2013 Daniel Gayo-Avello captured the state of the art regarding election prediction with social media publishing a meta-analysis, the very first one in this field of study. Concluding after an extensive literature review, that the 'prevailing view [among scientists] is overly optimistic', Gayo-Avello declares three major problems, that have to be addressed by future research: 1) The need to produce a true forecast, that is published before the election. 2) The need to take into account the biases on Twitter, especially the unrepresentativeness of the sample. 3) The need to incorporate sentiment rather than just tweet volume. The research question of this paper is very similar to Gayo-Avello's meta-analysis, to give an overview of the current state of the art two years later, assess if the past problems and questions scientists raised have been discussed, and in the last step answer, whether or not Twitter can be used as an efficient alternative to traditional electoral forecasting. Although two years might not be a lot of time considering the time it takes for a study to be conducted and published, the number of scientists contributing to this fairly new field of research is extremely high, therefore making much more understanding in a short time possible. Necessarily I will only highlight a selection of studies, not being able to shed light on all studies. In a nutshell, I will take the 3 demands by Gayo-Avello as a guideline to order recent studies, then give a quick insight into the current discussion in the scientific field, and in the end come to the conclusion, that traditional polling and social media-based approaches do not have to be exclusive, but can and should be combined in future research.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Communications - Media and Politics, Politic Communications, grade: 1,0, University of Constance, language: English, abstract: In 2013 Daniel Gayo-Avello captured the state of the art regarding election prediction with social media publishing a meta-analysis, the very first one in this field of study. Concluding after an extensive literature review, that the 'prevailing view [among scientists] is overly optimistic', Gayo-Avello declares three major problems, that have to be addressed by future research: 1) The need to produce a true forecast, that is published before the election. 2) The need to take into account the biases on Twitter, especially the unrepresentativeness of the sample. 3) The need to incorporate sentiment rather than just tweet volume. The research question of this paper is very similar to Gayo-Avello's meta-analysis, to give an overview of the current state of the art two years later, assess if the past problems and questions scientists raised have been discussed, and in the last step answer, whether or not Twitter can be used as an efficient alternative to traditional electoral forecasting. Although two years might not be a lot of time considering the time it takes for a study to be conducted and published, the number of scientists contributing to this fairly new field of research is extremely high, therefore making much more understanding in a short time possible. Necessarily I will only highlight a selection of studies, not being able to shed light on all studies. In a nutshell, I will take the 3 demands by Gayo-Avello as a guideline to order recent studies, then give a quick insight into the current discussion in the scientific field, and in the end come to the conclusion, that traditional polling and social media-based approaches do not have to be exclusive, but can and should be combined in future research.

More books from GRIN Verlag

Cover of the book Didaktische Betrachtung eines Gedichts - Georg Brittings 'Fröhlicher Regen' by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Avantgarde im Königreich Jugoslawien by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Irony in Charles Dickens' Oliver Twist by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Wüstenkonvention - Die 'United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification' by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Die stille Gesellschaft im Abgabenrecht by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Feasibility Analysis of a Low Cost Strategy for Long Distance Flights by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Der deutsch-dänische Grenzraum by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Projektcontrolling und Business Intelligence. Dimensionen und Techniken by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Was versteht man unter der monetären Analyse der EZB? by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Zum Begriff der Dollarisierung by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Die Gründung der Demokratischen Volksrepublik Korea und danach by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Jesus und die Ehebrecherin by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Informationelle Selbstbestimmung - Persönlichkeitsrecht by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Die Hamartiologien Barths und Tillichs im Vergleich by Marla van Nieuwland
Cover of the book Das Bilderbuch 'Die Königin der Farben' von Jutta Bauer im Unterricht der 1./2. Jahrgangstufe der Grundschule. Eine didaktisch-methodische Analyse by Marla van Nieuwland
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy